Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Veraltet3. Apr. 23, 14:28 UTC1. Jan. 30, 05:00 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be public
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRegeln
[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.
- An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate.
- (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)
