Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 98.2%
Prognostiker
64
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet3. Apr. 23, 14:28 UTC1. Jan. 30, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.
- An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate.
- (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)
Offene Märkte
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 30.812 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 18.020,8 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 8662,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7665,7 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.353,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 516,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 516,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 136.317,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? entschieden?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: [tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.