Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 73.2%
Prognostiker
53
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet7. Jan. 23, 19:00 UTC1. Jan. 30, 20:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be public
Manifold MarketsParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRegeln
detail: will there have existed a living, born, genetic descendant of Aella by the due date
