Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)?

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 62.8% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll) entschieden?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll) soll am 31. Dezember 2049 entschieden werden.

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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

One-OffGesundheit & Medizin

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 62.8%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden

Veraltet

26. März 23, 00:55 UTC31. Dez. 49, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

Resolves by polling on Jan 1, 2050 whatever superintelligences I think are trustworthy, or polling Manifold or the rationalist community if there are none.

I will ask the question in the title and resolve to the majority opinion.

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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

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Diesen Markt im Code oder in einem KI-Agenten nutzen

Offene Märkte

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Measles cases in 2026?