Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 95.7%
Prognostiker
51
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
16. Sept. 24, 20:09 UTC20. Jan. 29, 17:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will it be while visiting another country?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if Donald Trump dies by homicide while being president (during the term beginning 1/20/2025.)
- Resolves NO if Donald Trump finishes his time in office alive OR dies of any cause while president excluding homicide.
- Clarifications:
- If Donald Trump is replaced as president by an acting President due to incapacitation caused by an assassination attempt (25th constitutional amendment) AND later dies from injuries/complications before 1/20/2029, the market resolves YES.
- Trump’s term is considered over when his 4 year term expires, or earlier if he resigns or is removed from office.
