Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseWarren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway 100%Führend unter 17 Optionen
Prognostiker
55
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+98.4 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet9. Juli 25, 21:43 UTC31. Dez. 26, 22:25 UTC
Trends
100%
100%
99.6%
0.5%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.
- Out means not CEO anymore.
- That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc. If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.
- If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.
- If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway mit 100% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out entschieden?
- CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.