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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 00:23 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
2030/01/01 88.9%Führend unter 15 Optionen
2030/01/01 88.9%Prognostiker
36
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet3. Jan. 24, 22:53 UTC2. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
Manifold MarketsWhen will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
Manifold MarketsWill Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRegeln
Each date resolves YES if a Starship that had flown to space (>100km altitude) returns to Earth in one piece, and then flies to space again, before that date, using local time at the launch site.
- Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
- Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting