By the end of 2036, will the US enact a universal cash payment to all adults of at least... (per year, 2026 dollars)
InflationOne-OffHandelspolitikPolitik10JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose$1,000/year 9%Führend unter 4 Optionen
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Fragetyp
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
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Veraltet30. Sept. 26, 00:08 UTC1. Jan. 37, 04:59 UTC
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Each answer resolves independently.
- It resolves YES if, by December 31, 2036 (Eastern Time), the US enacts a federal universal cash payment, as defined below, of at least that amount per adult per year in 2026 dollars.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- A law that clears a higher threshold also clears every lower one, so the answers should be non-increasing from top to bottom.
- Arbitrage welcome.
- The $1,000 rung would catch a recurring universal "dividend" (tariff, carbon, AI, sovereign-wealth-fund) if it's legislated as a lasting program.
