Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 71.1%
Prognostiker
49
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
2. Okt. 23, 01:12 UTC2. Jan. 29, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsVideo games released this year
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
A single AI system must be able to use an arbitrary prompt to generate single player video games from any genre that exists today in 2023.
- The generated games should be comparable in quality to indie games made before the year 2024 with a budget of less than $1,000,000.
- The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
- I will not bet on this market.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 71% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games? entschieden?
- By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games? soll am 2. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: A single AI system must be able to use an arbitrary prompt to generate single player video games from any genre that exists today in 2023.