Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseGemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash 100%Führend unter 18 Optionen
Prognostiker
109
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-13.7 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 33 Minuten
1. Aug. 26, 13:5731. Aug. 26, 23:59
Trends
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Regeln
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
- Please ask for clarifications.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 255.550,9 €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 143.613,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 130.468,9 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 7,8 Mio. €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für August 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash mit 100% (Stand: 21. August 2026).
- Wann wird August 2026 AI model releases entschieden?
- August 2026 AI model releases soll am 31. August 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird August 2026 AI model releases abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.