🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?
PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitikMiddle East2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 93.7%
Prognostiker
31
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet25. Juni 25, 03:37 UTC19. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsDoes the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
Manifold MarketsWill the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
KalshiWill Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
KalshiWill a new Constitutional Amendment be added during Trump's term?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the end of President Donald Trump's term on January 20, 2029, there is credible evidence of U.S. military personnel being deployed on Iranian soil.
- Acceptable sources for verification include official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, reputable news organizations, or other authoritative reports confirming such deployment.
- If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".
- Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for a YES resolution, the U.S. military personnel must be fighting on the ground.
- Spies or CIA agents will not be counted.
Offene Märkte
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird 🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term? entschieden?
- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term? soll am 19. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria