Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 72.3%
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Minuten
6. Nov. 25, 05:26 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This is a fix for other market with same name but the name implied the opposite of the resolution criteria in the description.
- --- With the advent of AI most view that cloud spending will increase.
- However AI might also optimize existing system (including itself) and there is heavy research into reducing the cost (in terms of compute and energy) of existing AI systems.
- On the other side, even if the spending is reduced it could cause a Jevons Paradox in terms of more compute being used but will that compute be local or cloud-based?
- This market will resolve Yes if services like AWS, Azure, GCP, etc start to shrink in terms of revenue/net sales according to sources.
- Specifically two or more of the services have to collectively be shrinking for three quarters in a row.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 72% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? entschieden?
- AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This is a fix for other market with same name but the name implied the opposite of the resolution criteria in the description.