KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before Election Day 20%-5.0ptFührend unter 3 Optionen
Marktqualitat
48 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
1,1 €
Liquidität
45.411,6 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
6.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
25. Okt. 25, 14:00 UTC7. Nov. 28, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegeln
If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 615,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 730.479,7 €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 29,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 643.306,1 €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 14,5 Mio. €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 19,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 483.494,2 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Trump run for a third term??
- Kalshi bewertet Before Election Day mit 20% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Trump run for a third term? entschieden?
- Will Trump run for a third term? soll am 7. November 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Trump run for a third term? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.