KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Above 2.0% 86%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Marktqualitat
63 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
4040,7 €
Liquidität
3186,3 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
14. Sept. 26, 19:00 UTC13. Okt. 27, 12:29 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiSocial Security Insolvent by which date?
PolymarketWill Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above
Abwicklung über:Social Security Administration
- 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the percentage cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, which are generally paid in January 2028.
- The market will be determined using the initial percentage officially announced by the Social Security Administration.
- Subsequent revisions, corrections, or legislative changes will not be considered.
- This market concerns the gross Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and does not concern changes in Medicare premiums or the resulting net amount received by any beneficiary.
Offene Märkte
InflationKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.2%98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 265.583,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 76.256,9 €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 157.724,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 36.431,2 €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-4.5pt61.4%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt18.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.4pt17.8%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+4.0pt83.2%
- No-4.0pt16.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 33.097,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 31.365,8 €
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Hike–Pause–Hike-0.5pt41%
- Hike–Hike–Pause+4.5pt24%
- Hike–Hike–Hike-5.0pt20%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Owners' equivalent rent for September 2026
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI core in October
- September Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI core in September
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Social Security COLA for 2028?
- Kalshi bewertet Above 2.0% mit 86% (Stand: 18. September 2026).
- Wann wird Social Security COLA for 2028 entschieden?
- Social Security COLA for 2028 soll am 13. Oktober 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Social Security COLA for 2028 abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above