KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 88%
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
6,7 €
Liquidität
1604 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
8.0% / 11.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
12. Mai 26, 00:00 UTC8. Jan. 27, 13:29 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:FRED
- The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME.
- Revisions to previously published values will not be considered.
- The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession.
- A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? entschieden?
- Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? soll am 8. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.