Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?
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Daten vom 31.10.2026, 03:15 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
National · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
National 54%Führend unter 7 Optionen
National 54%Marktqualitat
21 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
89,6 €
Open Interest
479,9 $
Niedriges Open InterestGeld / Brief
— / —
NationalSpread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert10. Sept. 26, 02:00 UTC15. März 27, 14:00 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · National
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
If a coalition that includes National makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). A party governing alone qualifies under this ministerial-position test. A confidence and supply arrangement (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, counts only when expressly specified in the market’s party description. These individual-party descriptions do not specify such an arrangement, so confidence and supply without a qualifying ministerial position does not count. If, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- National
- If a coalition that includes National makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour
- If a coalition that includes Labour makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Greens
- If a coalition that includes Greens makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- New Zealand First
- If a coalition that includes New Zealand First makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ACT
- If a coalition that includes ACT makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Te Pāti Māori
- If a coalition that includes Te Pāti Māori makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Opportunity
- If a coalition that includes Opportunity makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.