Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?
PolitikOne-OffWahlMiddle EastSportUS PoliticsChess1J
KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitReligious Zionist Party 27%Führend unter 14 Optionen
Marktqualitat
52 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
2820,9 €
Liquidität
2703,4 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
28.0% / 32.0%
Spread
14.3%
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Minuten
20. Juli 26, 20:001. Jan. 28, 15:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Religious Zionist Party27%
Volumentrend
$3.2k20. Juli2T Daten21. Juli
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If a coalition that includes Likud make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.
- A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government.
- This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances).
- Additionally, A “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).
- If, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.