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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?
Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

1.0% (24h)YearlyPolitikUS PoliticsGeopolitik6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Portland
Portland 24%+1.0%
Führend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0,2 €

Liquidität

45,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

17.0% / 25.0%

Spread

47.1%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute

23. Dez. 25, 15:001. Jan. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
0%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Portland24%

Regeln

If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit.
  • The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**:
  • - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago - Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed
  • The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**:
  • - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Chicago without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize

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Regeln

If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit.
  • The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**:
  • - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago - Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed
  • The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**:
  • - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Chicago without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize