KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 89%
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
5953,8 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
8.8% / 10.0%
Spread
1.2 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
11. Feb. 26, 17:00 UTC3. Nov. 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn?
Manifold MarketsWill Thomas Massie leave Congress before his term ends?
Manifold MarketsWho controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsHow many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegeln
If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Bloomberg NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNeal DunnPoliticoReutersthe Associated Pressthe body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is heldthe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
- Neal Dunn must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.