KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
LA-02 97%Führend unter 6 Optionen
LA-02 97%Marktqualitat
54 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
18,5 €
Open Interest
3656,8 €
Mittleres Open InterestSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
28. Sept. 26, 23:00 UTC3. Nov. 27, 14:00 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 2nd Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Louisiana Secretary of State
- The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round. In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes. Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies. The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds. Blank votes, null votes, and invalid ballots are excluded unless electoral law specifically includes them. The market resolves once the relevant electoral body declares whether anyone won the first round.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- LA-02
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 2nd Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-04
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 4th Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-01
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 1st Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-03
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 3rd Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-05
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 5th Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-06
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 6th Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.