KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitNein 91%
Marktqualitat
66 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
0,9 €
Liquidität
15.210,3 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
8.2% / 9.0%
Spread
0.8 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
12. Feb. 26, 15:001. Jan. 27, 4:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes9%
Plattformen vergleichen· No
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Mittel | 91% | +82pt | 0,9 € | 15.210,3 € | vor 8 Minuten | |
 PolymarketAktivste85% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 93% | +84pt | 1019,7 € | 1189,4 € | vor 8 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
1.0 pts5Mon
-0.0pt92.1%
+0.0pt7.9%
60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen21.464,3 €
24h-Volumen1019,7 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If any federal or state court finds that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For clarity, the following do not satisfy this judgment criterion: findings of procedural irregularities, administrative errors, statutory violations related to election administration procedures (e.g., ballot curing deadlines, signature matching standards, observer access), or violations of election law that do not involve intentional fraud or deliberate manipulation of votes.
- Individual criminal prosecutions or guilty pleas for isolated acts of voter fraud (e.g., a single individual casting an illegal ballot) do not satisfy this criterion, even if the conduct occurred in connection with the 2020 election.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$13. Juli22T Daten28. Juli
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If any federal or state court finds that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For clarity, the following do not satisfy this judgment criterion: findings of procedural irregularities, administrative errors, statutory violations related to election administration procedures (e.g., ballot curing deadlines, signature matching standards, observer access), or violations of election law that do not involve intentional fraud or deliberate manipulation of votes.
- Individual criminal prosecutions or guilty pleas for isolated acts of voter fraud (e.g., a single individual casting an illegal ballot) do not satisfy this criterion, even if the conduct occurred in connection with the 2020 election.