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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wissenschaft
  3. When will El Niño conditions be declared present?
When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

7.0% (24h)One-OffWissenschaftWeather1Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026 70%+7.0%
Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

1,2 €

Liquidität

46,8 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

64.0% / 71.0%

Spread

10.9%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten

2. Juni 26, 14:0014. Juli 26, 3:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Before Jul 1, 202670%

Regeln

If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regeln

If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.