Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)
One-OffPolitikUS PoliticsWahl2J
KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitRahm Emanuel 77%Führend unter 33 Optionen
Marktqualitat
42 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
4370,3 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
23.0% / 29.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
21. Mai 26, 21:001. Nov. 28, 3:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Gavin Newsom23%
Volumentrend
$792. Juli17T Daten23. Juli
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If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
- The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
- Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
- The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
- If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.