Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 67.4%
Tahminciler
41
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
42 dakika önce güncellendi
11 Eyl 24 14:06 UTC12 Eyl 34 03:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
Manifold MarketsWill tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiKurallar
As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.
- If Scott does not publicly express an opinion before the resolution date, I will email him to get his take.
- If he cannot or will not answer, and the resolution is unclear, I will do my best to get expert opinions.
Açık piyasalar
TechKALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-5.0pt58.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+4.0pt41.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺66,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺62,5 Mn
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+72.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-25.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-10.0pt1%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+37.0pt99%
- Houston+67.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+13.0pt99%
+19 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+57.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-4.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-46.0pt1%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺63 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+6.0pt34%
- 160-179+4.0pt26.2%
- 200-219-3.0pt17.5%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Next James Bond actor?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 67% fiyatlıyor.
- Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 12 Eylül 2034.
- Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.