KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
26 Eki 2026 09:00 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Seçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
Before 2040 · —
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
—
Kayıtlı fiyat
Before 2040 59%4 seçenek arasında lider
Before 2040 59%Piyasa kalitesi
62 / 100
Orta kalite24s Hacim
₺59 B
Açık pozisyon
$24,6 B
Orta açık pozisyonAlış / Satış
— / —
Before 2040Spread
—
Piyasa verileri
5 dakika önce güncellendi
14 Ağu 25 20:45 UTC1 Oca 30 04:59 UTC
Grafik ve değişimler, seçili canlı emir defterini değil kayıtlı geçmiş olasılıkları gösterir.
Trendler
Seçili satır: emir defteri orta fiyatı. Diğer satırlar: normalleştirilmiş olabilen kayıtlı referanslar; 24 saatlik değişimler kayıtlı geçmişi kullanır.
İşlem platformu koşulları
Kaynak: Kalshi
Bu koşullar yalnızca bilgi amaçlıdır; CoinRithm deneme işlemlerinde kendi kurallarını uygular.
- Erken kapanış:
- Evet
- Sonuçlandırma süresi:
- 30m (bilgi amaçlı)
Piyasa derinliği · Before 2040
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
—
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the first quantum computer virus be identified by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Uzlaşma kaynağı:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyNature PhysicsScience AdvancesProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review ANature Communicationsthe National Institute of Standards and Technology official publicationsIBM Research peer-reviewed publicationsGoogle Quantum AI peer-reviewed publicationsQuantinuum peer-reviewed publicationsIonQ peer-reviewed publicationsMIT Technology ReviewIEEE Transactions on Quantum EngineeringQuantum Computing ReportScience MagazineReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNatureSciencePhysical Review Letters
Her sonucun kuralı
- Before 2040
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2035
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2030
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
