Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
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Guncelligini yitirmis25 Eyl 23 20:23 UTC1 Oca 30 07:59 UTC
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Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
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I was involved in a pretty interesting discussion about quantum computing and the risks posed to encryption algorithms recently and thought this might make for a fun market on here, since the opinions presented by the various parties in said discussion varied quite markedly.
- Even in doing some cursory research for materials to post here in this question description, the headlines of articles written on this exact topic (2048 bit RSA) being broken by quantum computers seem to be all over the place, whether the piece was written almost a decade ago or just this year.
- So, the question is: WILL A QUANTUM COMPUTER BE ABLE TO PROVABLY BREAK 2048 BIT RSA ENCRYPTION BY 2030?
- In order to resolve, it must be proven possible to use quantum computing to successfully 'break' RSA 2048 bit...this could be done by taking a known existing 2048 bit public key that was already published and available, and using their algorithm to factorize the public key and determine the corresponding private key.
- This could be verified by utilizing the found private key to decrypt messages signed with the public key.
- "By 2030" means until December 31st, 2029 11:59:59 UTC
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 83% fiyatlıyor.
- Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: I was involved in a pretty interesting discussion about quantum computing and the risks posed to encryption algorithms recently and thought this might make for a fun market on here, since the opinions presented by the various parties in said discussion varied quite markedly.