Güncel topluluk tahmini
2028 25.1%9 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+0.5 pts
Piyasa verileri
19 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Oca 26 08:29 UTC1 Oca 01 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be able to assemble LEGOs from a LEGO instruction set by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these game franchises will have an official Lego set released before Jan 1st 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be able to reliably tie a men's necktie by the year 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES when a humanoid robot (bipedal, anthropomorphic form factor) successfully completes all of the following in a single, continuous attempt:
- Unboxes a previously unreleased Lego set with 5,000+ pieces
- Reads and interprets the instruction manual as provided to human builders
- Assembles the entire model according to the manual without human intervention
- Resolution will be determined by video evidence published by the robot manufacturer or verified by independent third parties.
