Güncel topluluk tahmini
Later 54.4%+20.5pt5 seçenek arasında lider
Later 54.4%+20.5ptTahminciler
17
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+20.5 pts
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Oca 24 22:50 UTC1 Oca 28 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these game franchises will have an official Lego set released before Jan 1st 2028?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
I will resolve this whenever a credible video is posted of an autonomous robot system assembling, from printed instructions, a Lego set that it has not specifically been trained to assemble.
- I will resolve to 'Later' if no such video has been posted by EOY 2027.
- This does not have to be a general system; it is fine if the system is specifically trained to do Lego assembly, on other Lego sets.
- Applying stickers is not required.