Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 62%
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10
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binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Ağu 23 10:19 UTC1 Oca 00 22:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- [link preview]
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-13.0pt62.4%
- 2027-13.0pt29.7%
- 2026-3.5pt7.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,4 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-0.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt57%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.2%
- Grok+2.5pt7.5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺514,3 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,7 Mn
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 62% fiyatlıyor.
- Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2100.
- Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/