Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 76.8%
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Nis 26 16:49 UTC3 Kas 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11)
KalshiWhat will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketKurallar
I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺40,2 Mn
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt55%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.2pt43%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺23,1 Mn
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 77% fiyatlıyor.
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 3 Kasım 2026.
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.