2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
1.0 puan (24s)One-OffPolitikaSeçimABD Siyaseti2026 ABD Ara Seçimleri1y
KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreSeçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
Democrats, 8 to 10% · —
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Kayıtlı fiyat
Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%10 seçenek arasında lider
Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%Piyasa kalitesi
94 / 100
Yüksek kalite24s Hacim
₺7,4 Mn
Açık pozisyon
$2,4 Mn
Yüksek açık pozisyonAlış / Satış
— / —
Democrats, 8 to 10%Spread
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Piyasa verileri
11 dakika önce güncellendi
4 Şub 26 15:00 UTC3 Kas 27 13:00 UTC
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Piyasa derinliği · Democrats, 8 to 10%
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İlgili Piyasalar
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2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
KalshiGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/23-10/30)?
KalshiWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Uzlaşma kaynağı:the Clerk of the House
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Her sonucun kuralı
- Democrats, 8 to 10%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 10 to 12%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 6 to 8%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 12 to 14%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 4 to 6%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republicans win
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 14 to 16%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 16% and above
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 2 to 4%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 0 to 2%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.