2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
PolitikaOne-Off2026 ABD Ara SeçimleriABD SiyasetiSeçim3ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiDemocrats, ≥5% 90%12 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+40.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis25 Eki 26 20:10 UTC3 Şub 27 15:00 UTC
Trendler
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03-al10
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.