2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiSeçim2026 ABD Ara Seçimleri4ay
KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreSeçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
R+0.9 to D+0.9 · —
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
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Kayıtlı fiyat
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%9 seçenek arasında lider
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%Piyasa kalitesi
48 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
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Açık pozisyon
$3,4 B
Orta açık pozisyonAlış / Satış
— / —
R+0.9 to D+0.9Spread
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Piyasa verileri
7 dakika önce güncellendi
1 Eki 26 18:00 UTC1 Mar 27 13:59 UTC
Grafik ve değişimler, seçili canlı emir defterini değil kayıtlı geçmiş olasılıkları gösterir.
Trendler
Seçili satır: emir defteri orta fiyatı. Diğer satırlar: normalleştirilmiş olabilen kayıtlı referanslar; 24 saatlik değişimler kayıtlı geçmişi kullanır.
İşlem platformu koşulları
Kaynak: Kalshi
Bu koşullar yalnızca bilgi amaçlıdır; CoinRithm deneme işlemlerinde kendi kurallarını uygular.
- Erken kapanış:
- Evet
- Sonuçlandırma süresi:
- 30m (bilgi amaçlı)
Piyasa derinliği · R+0.9 to D+0.9
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/16-10/23)?
KalshiWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election, as reported by the Clerk of the House, with each percentage taken over all votes cast; the margin is calculated from unrounded percentages and then rounded to one decimal place. The reference margin is the VoteHub 2026 generic congressional ballot margin (Democratic minus Republican, time-weighted) as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The value is the national House popular vote margin minus the reference margin: positive if Democrats outperform the reference margin and negative if Republicans do. Each range includes both of its endpoints.
Her sonucun kuralı
- R+0.9 to D+0.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+1 to D+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 1 and 2.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+1 to R+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -2.9 and -1 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+3 to R+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -4.9 and -3 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+3 to D+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 3 and 4.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is at least 7 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+5 to R+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -6.9 and -5 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is below -6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+5 to D+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 5 and 6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.