Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?
JeopolitikOne-OffLatin Amerika2ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 89.1%
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Oca 26 20:56 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if there are 5 straight days of active military operations.
- Resolves in the spirit of the question: the intent of this question is to gauge whether the conflict will escalate beyond sporadic brief (1 night) operations into a more prolonged conflict.
- Things like airstrikes, deployments of ground forces and vehicles who are firing live ammunition, raids on facilities, drone strikes, etc, would count.
- Things like patrols of boats within Venezuelan waters, presence of a special forces team that isn't actively engaged in live fire, or spy planes flying overhead would NOT count.
- Please do not attempt to pedantically litigate in the comments whether some US action constitutes "active military operations".
- If there's doubt as to whether it does, it probably won't count for this question.