In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
JeopolitikOne-OffOrta Doğu2ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiNovember 2026 43.4%17 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+5.8 pts
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Ağu 26 18:37 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES for any month in which there are at least three consecutive calendar days (using Israel Standard Time, IST) where air raid sirens or red alerts are triggered in any part of Israel by missiles or drones launched directly from Iranian territory.
- Otherwise, those months will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Sirens" refers to official alerts (Tzeva Adom / Red Alert) or air raid sirens issued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command (Pikud HaOref).
- "Caused by Iranian missiles" requires that the projectiles (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or explosive UAVs/drones) were launched directly from Iranian soil.