Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 95.1%
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38
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Play-money forecasting platform
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14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Şub 26 04:58 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRussia nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.
- Doesn't have to occur on US soil, as long as it is the US conducting the test.
- A US test conducted in conjunction with another nation (like France or the UK) would qualify, as long as it's clear that the US is an equal partner in these tests.
- By tests, we're talking actual nuclear tests, the kinds we made treaties about, not the kind of monitoring that the US does regularly, even if Trump, say, calls that a "nuclear test".
- Very strong OSINT arguments (radioactivity monitoring, seismology, etc) such that a reasonable Manifolder would conclude it is highly likely that the US conducted a nuclear test based on the evidence would qualify, even if the mainstream press phrases things ambiguously like "The US may or may not have conducted a nuclear test" or similar.
- I will not bet on this market to remain as objective as possible.
