Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffYZSociety & Culture4ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 63.2%
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PolymarketKurallar
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.8pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺23 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt69.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.1pt6.9%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺545,6 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+0.5pt84%
- November 30,+9.0pt82%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,3 Mn
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
- OpenAI market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 17 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 63% fiyatlıyor.
- Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Şubat 2027.
- Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.