Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 90.4%
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis29 Mar 23 07:58 UTC1 Oca 00 20:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be a trend spike for the term "Butlerian Jihad" before 2035?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026 (mirror)
Manifold MarketsWill "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsIs Earth flat?
PolymarketKurallar
Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind
- In the Dune books there was an event called 'Butlerian Jihad' https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Butlerian_Jihad
- This marker it about will something like 'Butlerian Jihad' occer in real life.
- It is hard to explicitly explain what is 'something like'.
- I'm thinking of serveal points:
- there are very serious problems because of the 'thinking machine technology' (AI)
