Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 76.5%
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102
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Kas 22 16:57 UTC1 Oca 38 05:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.
- It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts.
- Bans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research.
- For example, "no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters", or "no recurrent neural networks" would resolve this market to YES. "No AI-generated pornography" or "no AI designed to operate a military drone" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES.
- In essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence.
- I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.
Açık piyasalar
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+2.5pt75%
- September 18+0.5pt69%
- September 11+6.0pt67%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺87,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺31,3 Mn
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-2.0pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.8pt50%
- October 31-1.0pt28.4%
- September 30-1.0pt12.1%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.1pt3%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 77% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2038.
- Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.