Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 80.4%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Nis 26 11:20 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiKurallar
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt58.2%
- ChatGPT-6.2pt21.4%
- Grok+0.4pt8.2%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺519,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+2.0pt57.3%
- 2026+15.5pt29%
- September 30, 2026+6.0pt13.7%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-2.5pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.6pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.6pt3%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 80% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.