Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 73.3%
Tahminciler
3
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli14 May 26 17:32 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Shiller P/E Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio, or CAPE) for the S&P 500 exceeds 50.0 at any point during the market's duration, based on the official data published by Robert Shiller.
- The market will resolve to "No" if the ratio remains at or below 50.0 through January 1, 2030.
- The primary source for resolution is the data provided at Robert Shiller’s Online Data website.
- Specifically, the market will refer to the "U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio" spreadsheet.
- If this data source becomes unavailable, the resolution will be based on the most widely accepted alternative index tracking the S&P 500 CAPE ratio, as reported by major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal).
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 73% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria