Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 86%
Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Tem 26 00:12 UTC4 Ara 26 13:25 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
China unemployment rate in August
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExSouth Africa unemployment rate in Q3
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExMexico unemployment rate in August
KalshiSeptember Unemployment Rate
PolymarketKurallar
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for November 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial November 2026 release before resolution.
- If the November 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the November 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by December 11, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation context reported a May 2026 U-3 unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and a 4.3-4.5 percent range since July 2025.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["November 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, and demographic markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the November reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the November 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-12-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS schedule pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; recheck the official BLS schedule/source pages before live creation.", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
- Kalshi üzerinde de mevcut — Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 77%
Açık piyasalar
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+9.0pt62.4%
- No change-10.0pt36.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,5 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺281,4 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺38,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,9 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺22,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,1 Mn
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-7.0pt27%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,7 Mn
KALSHICore inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.2%+2.0pt97%
- Above 2.1%97%
- Above 2.3%-1.0pt62%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2,4 Mn
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- China unemployment rate in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 86% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 4 Aralık 2026.
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? başka nerede listeleniyor?
- Aynı soru şu platformlarda da listeleniyor: Kalshi.