Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 84.9%
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Nis 24 15:23 UTC1 Oca 31 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?
Manifold Markets"we're less than six months from a state change of some kind" - Joshua Achiam
Manifold MarketsWhat will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035
Manifold MarketsCanada imposes Welland Canal toll on US ships by September 30?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,
- Featuring at least one major terrorist attack using a ship,
- And evidence of at least ~10% of the death or property damage directly inflicted by actual 9/11.
- [image]This market is inspired by the rising sense of vulnerability to international business represented by shipping logistics and related infrastructure.
- In particular, this market is focusing on the possibility of state or non-state terrorist actors using ships as improvised weapons in a method broadly similar to how planes were used on 9/11.
- A warship being used by a military to launch missiles would not count, even if it has blatantly civilian targets.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺34,6 Mn
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-10.0pt72%
- September 18-11.0pt65%
- September 11-15.0pt54%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.6%
- September 30-4.0pt12.2%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,7 Mn
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 85% fiyatlıyor.
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2031.
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,