Will September 2026 U.S. payroll growth turn negative in its first revision?
EnflasyonOne-OffMakro ve EkonomiEkonomi4g
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 60.9%
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis29 Eki 26 04:53 UTC6 Kas 26 13:25 UTC
Trendler
Makroya Duyarlı Varlıklar
Kurallar
Resolves YES if the first BLS Employment Situation release covering October 2026 reports a negative seasonally adjusted change in total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment from August to September 2026.
- Use September minus August employment in the seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm row of Table B-1 in that release.
- A result below zero resolves YES; zero or higher resolves NO.
- If the narrative and table disagree, Table B-1 controls.
- This concerns September’s first monthly revision, not October’s new payroll estimate.
- Use the release as initially published; subsequent corrections, monthly revisions, and annual benchmark revisions do not count.
