Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
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Guncelligini yitirmis31 Mar 23 12:45 UTC1 Oca 00 05:00 UTC
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By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsIf the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?
Manifold MarketsIf the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessKurallar
Here is the market in question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)I've tried to make it clear that I'm only going to resolve it once there's overwhelming evidence in one direction or another, no more serious concerns about relevant evidence being hidden, I'll talk to experts, etc. That said, it still ultimately comes down to my personal opinion, and, very reasonably, some people don't feel fully comfortable trusting that on such a controversial and politically charged topic.
- So, after that market resolves, I'll post a poll about whether Manifold users agree with the decision.
- (Alt accounts are ignored, and moderators count for 5x the votes of others.
- I don't get a vote myself.) If at least 10% of the vote disagrees, this market resolves YES.
- I will be trying to make sure that votes are an accurate representation of that user's beliefs, so as to avoid trolls who vote dishonestly.
