Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?
One-OffOrta DoğuJeopolitik2ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 58.9%
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
23 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Nis 26 19:40 UTC1 Oca 27 00:00 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of 12:00 PM UTC on January 1st, 2027, the government of Iran or entities acting under its authority (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) are actively requiring or enforcing the payment of tolls for the passage of commercial vessels through any part of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market will resolve to NO if such a regime is not in effect at that time.
- Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible international reporting (e.g., major news outlets like Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, or maritime industry monitors like Lloyd's List Intelligence).
- Clear evidence of a functional, officially sanctioned, or de facto toll collection system—where passage is conditioned upon payment—will satisfy the criteria for a YES.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
