Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiJeopolitikOrta Doğu2ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 68.2%
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
16 dakika önce güncellendi
1 Ağu 26 16:23 UTC1 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- The US and Iran will be considered at war if military hostilities between the two nations are actively occurring on January 1st, 2027.
- This includes direct combat operations, sustained military strikes, or active armed conflict.
- Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on US military bases and Israel following the February 28, 2026 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran constitute evidence of active warfare.
- The market resolves YES if military operations continue through January 1st, 2027.
- The market resolves NO if a ceasefire, peace agreement, or cessation of hostilities has been established before that date, or if no active military conflict exists on that date.
