Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?
JeopolitikOne-OffMiddle East3ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 67.7%
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2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Nis 26 23:05 UTC1 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Given the questionable status of the current ceasefire, this market will resolve Yes if that ceasefire ends AND a new ceasefire begins by the end of 2026 (December 31st, 11:59pm EST).
- The current ceasefire is already in a status I would describe as "probably over," but I would not count a stabilization of the current two-week ceasefire as a second ceasefire.
- If on April 23nd or later, media consensus (CNN, BBC, WaPo, etc.) is that the war is back on, any further mutually confirmed and initiated ceasefire this year will then resolve the market Yes.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
- The spirit of this market pertains to the current cessation, a potential resumption, and then a new cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran.
- Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade does not by itself break the ceasefire.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 68% fiyatlıyor.
- Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Given the questionable status of the current ceasefire, this market will resolve Yes if that ceasefire ends AND a new ceasefire begins by the end of 2026 (December 31st, 11:59pm EST).