Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiMojtaba Khamenei 79.5%13 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
54
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-1.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Oca 26 14:14 UTC1 Oca 27 00:00 UTC
Trendler
0.5%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Who will be the next paramount leader of China?
Manifold MarketsUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiLeader of Iran at end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Monero (XMR) Coin be worth more than $475 on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺29,5 Mn
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.9pt47.8%
- October 31-3.0pt29.2%
- September 30-4.0pt12.4%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-5.0pt74%
- September 18-10.0pt67%
- September 11-2.5pt63%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Mojtaba Khamenei için 80% fiyatlıyor.
- Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.