Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiMojtaba Khamenei 83.3%13 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
54
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Oca 26 14:14 UTC1 Oca 27 00:00 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Who will be the next paramount leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Paramount leader of the People's Republic of China after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
KalshiUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketLeader of Iran at end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.