Will I be credibly accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment before 2028?
One-OffSuç ve AdaletToplum ve Kültür1yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 96.7%
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
9 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Mar 23 04:35 UTC1 Oca 28 08:00 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
This market works as follows:
- If any accusation is made, I'll try to link to any relevant evidence in the comments, and anyone else can also provide any evidence they believe to be relevant.
- After it doesn't seem like any more evidence is likely to be forthcoming, I will ask Manifold users to vote on whether they believe the accusation is credible.
- A certain voter believes the accusation is "credible", if, after looking at the evidence, they think there's at least a 50% chance that I did sexually assault or sexually harrass someone as described in the accusation.
- (Each voter should use whatever definition of "sexual assault" and "sexual harrassment" they believe to be most correct.)
- If it seems like one person may have created a bunch of accounts in order to manipulate the votes, I'll ask the Manifold admins to look into it.
