Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 60.3%
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Oca 26 16:49 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts on X (formerly Twitter) a tweet explicitly stating that a Grok successor model has achieved "AGI-level performance," "AGI has been reached," or substantially equivalent language claiming AGI achievement by December 31, 2026.
- The tweet must be posted by @elonmusk's verified account and must specifically reference a Grok model version (e.g., Grok 5, Grok 6, etc.).
- Resolution is based on the literal text of the tweet; claims about "approaching AGI" or "near-AGI capabilities" do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if no such tweet is posted by the deadline.
- Elon Musk predicts that his company xAI could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next couple of years, and maybe as soon as 2026.
